Write this down, 98Q80C.  It is the model number of Samsung’s (005930.KS) ‘almost’ released 98” Mini-LED/Quantum Dot 4K TV.  This monster (~4’ high x 7’ wide – you can fit a bit over three 55” TVs in that space!) includes all sorts of technology to enhance the picture regardless of what you might be watching and has sound object tracking that places sounds where they were positioned in the image, using Dolby (DLB) Atmos (hopefully you have the front, left, right, center, and to overhead speakers that Dolby requires).  But what really makes the 98Q80C unusual is the price.
When the 1st Samsung 98” Mini-LED/QD 8K set came out, it sold (in Korea) for $58,450 and the 4K equivalent sold for $35,160.  Last year the 98” 4K set sold (US) for $15,000, but this year, at least for the next 2 days and 18 hours, you can pick up this 28.5 ft2 baby for a mere $7,999…but wait, there’s more!  If you beat the deadline (pre-orders), Samsung will take off $1,000, bringing the price down to $6,999, and if you place the order at one of Samsung’s participating retailers, such as Best Buy (BBY), they will take another $500 off.  Along with the discounts, you get (hurry, only 2 days left!) a free, yes free, Q800C Soundbar ($1,000 value according to Samsung), free, yes free, installation ($120 value), and 0% financing with $0 down, plus Samsung’s Care+ extended coverage (value of $249.99 for this set for 1 year).
But seriously folks, Samsung is pushing this set, at least for the next 2 days, to build its presence in the 80+” TV market, which is expected to grow 24% this year, despite weak overall TV shipments and sales.  Samsung has the #1 position in this ultra-large market (40%+), and while the 80+” market is small in terms of unit volume (~2.8m units this year), the sales dollars and margins make it quite lucrative, even with the perks above.  We are not saying to dip into the kids’ education funds or take out payday loans, but if you were thinking about filling your living room wall with a 98” TV, strike while the iron is hot, the clock is ticking!
►Don’t forget that our TV pricing data suggests that while there might be price peaks and valleys for every TV set, the general trend is down as the number of days from release increases.  If you need it now, take advantage of this early discount.  If you are not in a hurry, new model pricing is typically the highest over the life of the Tv model.

Legal Mumbo-Jumbo - Note: We have absolutely no vested interest in Samsung or any other company mentioned and receive no compensation from any company for mentioning their name or product.  We mention specific models and pricing only as reference and make no judgement on the value of such purchases to consumers.  
​

Years ago we saw a mock-up of an OLED device that looked like a large pen.  It had a tab that allowed the user to pull out a flexible OLED display that showed full color images and text, as if you were reading a magazine or newspaper., which you could wirelessly update or switch pages with the press of a button.  As one who has spent many hours on trains commuting to and from work, the idea of such a device remained a futuristic but eminently achievable industry goal in our minds, and we have followed the display space closely ever since. 
It seems that we are getting ever closer to that dream as Samsung Display (pvt) promises to show an updated version of their flexible and rollable displays at the upcoming SID show next week.  The product is called Rollable Flex, and while it is similar to other SDC display products, and those of other display manufacturers, it takes the rollable concept a bit further.  Typically rollable displays are able to expand their surface area by 3x by maintaining a wide circumference around a drum, or in some cases folding across the interior of a device, however the folks at SDC have come up with a display that is able to be more tightly ‘wound’ around a cylinder without damage, and is able to expand its surface area by 5x, with the show demo being 49mm (1.9”) long when rolled to 254.4mm (10.01”) long when unrolled by wrapping it tightly around a cylinder.
While rollable OLED displays exist currently, they do not have the physical characteristics to be tightly wound without showing stress and eventual more serious damage.  While all of the materials in an OLED stack have their own ‘modulus of elasticity’, a fancy way of saying its resistance to being deformed, much of an OLED display’s flexibility is not determined by its substrate but by the material used to create the OLED stack’s anode.  The anode must be transparent if the light from the OLED emitters is to exit the pixel, and the most common material for OLED anodes is ITO, or indium Tin Oxide, which it typically sputtered[1] onto the substrate.  ITO is unusual in that it has both high electrical conductivity and optical transparency, a rare combination, along with ability to be finely etched, however the material is also brittle, the antithesis of what is needed for rollable displays, and is also permeable enough to allow oxygen and water vapor into the OLED stack, which destroys OLED materials.
In rigid OLED displays, the ITO is deposited on glass, and with a second ‘base’ glass substrate, locks the ITO and other OLED materials away from oxygen and water, however rollable displays must be built on flexible substrates which leaves the ITO and other material open to damage.  The solution for this issue is ‘layer’ other impermeable but transparent materials over the ITO, a process called encapsulation, solving the contamination issue.  That said, ITO’s brittleness is still an issue, and we expect SDC has come up with either an ITO substitute or modified ITO mixture that allows the material to have a higher elasticity modulus that exceeds that of current materials, and the odds are that SDC will not reveal the details of the difference from ‘normal’ and less flexible OLED stack components.
While this is all technical, it does pave the way for progressively smaller rollable devices and puts into sight the one-day pocket pen that opens into a large, full color display.  Samsung has already patented a number of ‘hybrid’ devices that use a rolled OLED display and a mechanical pull-out frame that holds the display when open, but these are typically the size of smartphones when closed, still a reach from the pocket-pen newspaper.


[1] Sputtering is a process  that involves the creation of plasma that ionizes the mater5ial (source) which forces the molecules out of the source  and on to a target material as a thin film.

We have mentioned a number of times that over the last few quarters Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and LG Display (LPL) have been negotiating over a panel supply deal for OLED displays.  Samsung, whose display affiliate Samsung Display (pvt) has exited the LCD TV panel business, has been looking to expand its premium TV offerings, and while it offers its own Quantum Dot/OLED TVs, production is limited to one 30K fab, leaving Micro-LED TVs at the top of the line, albeit far out of reach for almost all consumers, the company’s Mini-LED/Quantum Dot lines, a small QD/OLED line, and Samsung’s Quantum Dot only LCD TVs.  With the premium Tv market the only TV segment expected to show positive y/y growth this year, building out that segment is quite important currently and likely necessary for the next few years.

While the definition of ‘premium’ in the Tv market varies, we define the ‘premium’ TV market as sets that are 55” or larger and cost $1,000 or more, and the lines shown in the graphic above all fall into that category, with a few models just below the ‘premium’ cut as shown in the table below.  As the Micro-LED line is not really a consumer-friendly priced item. We would expect Samsung, if a deal were concluded, to insert the ‘New OLED’ line at the same price points as the QD/OLED line to increase the volume of OLED offerings at those price points, and consequently, those price points are roughly equal to LG’s (066570.KS) own G3 OLED TV line, so price competition between the two rivals would not create further friction.
The big question however is Samsung’s margins on the new OLED line, much of which would be determined by the agreed-on price for the panels, which was said to be the contention throughout the earlier negotiations.  As Samsung is expected to purchase ~2m units next year, increasing to 3m and 5m in the following years (unconfirmed), and perhaps up to 1m panels this year, they are looking for a substantial discount to LGD’s normal transfer price.  LG Display has been running its WOLED fabs at less than full utilization so far this year, and such a deal would give a needed boost to OLED utilization rates that have dragged down profitability in recent quarters.  However rumors that Samsung is demanding prices below those offered to LG Display’s parent, which would likely cause a bit of bad blood between parent and affiliate.  That said, LG owns almost 60% of LG Display, so it’s an odd situation for LG.
While news services have picked up the supposed ‘movement’ in the negotiations, this would not be the first time a ‘deal done’ signal was given (or assumed) from local South Korean media.  While such a deal will have benefits for both parties, there is considerable emotional skin in the game for Samsung, who decided in 2013 that producing large RGB OLED panels was not a viable process.  In fact, they were correct in that assumption, as LG Display does not use and RGB patterning process in its OLED panels, but one encompassing creating a white light with a combination of OLED emitters and using a color filter to create the necessary red, green and blue sub-pixels., which reduces the brightness of the display.  Over the years LGD has adopted a number of improvements that have offset some of that issue, but the current-day management at Samsung must bow to the fact that the 2013 decision has given LGD a distinct advantage in the OLED TV space, as both the sole OLED TV panel supplier and LG’s over 50% share of the OLED TV set market.
It will be challenging for Samsung to come up with a marketing plan that continues to sell its QD/OLED technology while extoling the virtues of LG Display’s OLED TV panel vision, and not degrading the company’s Mini-LED/QD technology, which Samsung has been championing since 2021.  Of course that is what the marketing guys get paid for, so we expect rounds of advertisements providing little empirical information about the pluses and minuses of each technology, and more on why whatever the technology is, Samsung’s is better than others.  Samsung’s smartphone and TV divisions were ‘ordered’ to find solutions to improve earnings after 1Q results led to an 18% decline in sales and the lowest operating profit the company has seen in many years.  Tv division sales were down 14.8% y/y, so there is considerable pressure to expand the premium set business and bring up margins from upper management, so likely less face saving, and more sales will be the holiday mantra this year.
 

While we note that gauging the success of Samsung’s (005930.KS) just announced Galaxy S23 flagship smartphone series in South Korea is a datapoint that might not translate globally, it does give some color as to the potential success of the series going forward, at least on a relative basis.  Samsung announced the new series on February 1, with three models, the Galaxy S23 Ultra, the Galaxy S23+, and the Galaxy S23 in order of price and feature set, with the three South Korean carriers able to take pre-orders for delivery beginning on the 17th, with Samsung announcing this morning that as of the 14th, pre-orders amounted to 1.09m units, above last year’s record of 1.01m units. 
Of the three models, the S23 Ultra garnered ~60% of the pre-orders, the more generic S23 ~23% and the S23+ ~17%, with the fact that the Ultra has a 200 MP main camera (plus 4 others) and a 6.8” display, while the plus has a 6.6” display and a 50 MP camera (plus 3 others), while the S23 has a 6.1” display and also a 50 MP camera (plus 3 others).  With a difference of $200 between the Ultra and the plus, it seems most early buyers are willing to fork up the extra cash for the high-resolution camera, although there are many discounts and promotions being offered that can lower the price, particularly with trade-ins, new carrier accounts or when using carrier credit cards for purchase.
In recent years Samsung has had difficulty maintaining robust flagship smartphone sales, and the elimination of the Galaxy Note series in lieu of folding models was an indication that the company recognized a need to refresh the premium side of its smartphone offerings.  Breathing life into smartphones that have changed relatively little over the last few years was not an easy task, and the economic weakness being experienced on a global scale in 2022 did little to help, but Samsung continues to dominate the foldable smartphone market, and maintains a significant manufacturing lead over other OLED panel producers. 
That said, it will take time for Samsung’s foldable smartphone line to gain enough end user acceptance to generate consumer momentum toward the smartphone market, along with the potential for Apple (AAPL) to join the foldable market in a year or so, but Samsung does have he ability to stretch in terms of form factors, as we have noted in the past, and we expect a third foldable model to appear this year or b next, although it might be considered more of a tablet than a smartphone.  Either way, if it is practical and generates consumer excitement, it will help to offset the mid and low-tier competition Samsung faces from Chinese brands, where Samsung has less of an advantage.
 

​Samsung Electronics has made a number of investments in local South Korean companies over the last 10 years, many of which are investments in developing technology that Samsung uses or has the potential to use in one of its many businesses.  While investment timing is certainly a consideration, making such investments is as much a business decision as it is a financial one, and investment performance  does not take into consideration the positive aspects of products developed and sold as a result of such investments.  That said, it is also nice to have positive returns, so after attention was drawn to Samsung’s long-term investments in Korean companies when they announced an investment in Rainbow Robotics (277810.KS) late last month, we went back to check on how the company’s other investments have done over the years.
All in, Samsung has had mixed results over the mid-term as to investments made since 2020, but earlier investments have proved extremely favorable, with the entire portfolio up 166.7% since 2013, or an 11.5% CAGR.  Samsung has invested ~$409.3m in local South Korean companies, taking a roughly 6.4% stake since 2013.  The average investment is ~$37.3m US).  While Rainbow has soared since the announcement was made, increasing the value of that investment from $46.4m to $145.7m, we expect there will be many bumps in the road for that asset over the next few years.

​As promised, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) officially announced the price and delivery schedule for one of the two additional sizes of their QD/OLED TV line, the 77” (Model 77S95C) model.  The sets will begin shipments on February 14 if pre-ordered at the advertised price of $4,500, which is slightly higher than the original price of Samsung’s top tier Mini-LED/QD 75” set that it released in March of last year and considerably higher than our early estimate of $3,000[1]  While this price might seem high when compared to the current price of the 2022 55” and 65” QD/OLED sets, which are now selling for $1,450 and $1,800 respectively, we note that the initial price of the 55” and 65” sets, released 326 days ago were 42% and 40% higher.  If we follow that logic, in 342 days (January 1, 2024) the price of the 77” model should be $2,655, or 41% below the initial.
Of course there re a lot of factors that will affect the price reductions for the 77” model, along with further reductions for the 55” and 65” models, and a potential 49” model that has yet to be announced officially, so we use that number only as a guideline that has considerable room for change.  However, it does serve to wait for the initial enthusiasm from “Gotta be the first” buyers to wane, as on an unofficial basis, it took about 46 days for the price of the 55” model to decline by 12.1% on Amazon (AMZN) and was near it current all-time lowest price in a bit under 230 days (End of October 2022). 
One point to consider is that on a per square inch basis, the 77” model sells for $1.78/in2, roughly between the initial price/in2 of the two earlier models, which means Samsung used the earlier models as an initial pricing reference for the 77” model.  With the 55” and the 65” QD/OLED models now selling for $1.12/in2 and $1.00/in2, our $2,655 estimate ($1.05/in2) does not seem outlandish, so if you can wait until the 2023 holiday season to buy the 77” QD/OLED Samsung TV, you should be able to save a substantial amount relative to today’s pre-order purchase price, or you can hope that Samsung announces a lower priced version of the 77” model (Model 77S90C?) later this year as rumors have suggested might be the case.


[1] Note: Our estimate was based on the current prices of the two existing (55” & 65”) models.  Samsung has priced the 77” set at a premium starting price, although we believe it will decline as noted above.

We are big on CE products that are practical, perform functions efficiently, and are not exorbitantly expensive, all relatively simple goals, although there are many CE products that do not fill even these basic parameters.  While we have yet to put our hands on the specific Samsung (005930.KS) device mentioned below, that was announced at CES 2023, we see the device, if it lives up to its promotion, as one that might fill the bill.  The device is called the Samsung Smartthings Station and will be released in Korea (and likely the US) next month.  This is a relatively simple device that represents the ‘new world’ in smart home devices promised by the new ‘Matter’ connectivity standard, that allows Matter enabled products to interoperate with other devices and controllers, as opposed to forcing the users to use proprietary controlling devices.
In the pre-Matter world, you might have a lighting dimmer system that you controlled with wall dimmers, a handheld controller, or a smartphone app, and at the same time you might have automated curtains that operated with another handheld controller or app.  Then there was your smart TV, with its own remote, unless you are using an external Roku (ROKU) device, for which there was another controller, and the list goes on with doorbells, leak sensors, smart refrigerators, and a variety of other devices, all of which needed some sort of controller or app, mostly proprietary.  There are many ‘hubs’, which act as central control points for a number of devices, but again most are able to work only with devices made by a specific brand, so smart homes tend to be a mass of proprietary systems that did not talk to each other.
Matter is to change that, with a standard that can be adopted by any device, brand, or smart product, giving it almost universal communication ability with other devices, and allowing the user to decide which controller he or she might want to use once they become ‘Matter’ enabled.  So, in theory, users should eventually be able to control all of the smart devices in their homes with a single controller (of their choice), although adoption will take some time and some older legacy existing devices might never become Matter enabled.
Samsung’s device is a simple one, and supports Matter, Thread[1], and Zigbee, and at ~$60 is the least expensive border router currently available that supports Thread and Matter, allowing home devices to be connected in a mesh configuration.  This allows for better communication between devices on the network and in most cases a larger reach for the network.  Samsung’s iOS is also the only OS that currently supports Matter, other than Apple’s (AAPL) iOS, with Google (GOOG) Home and Amazon (AMZN) Alexa, expected to add Matter support to their OS’s later this year.  Samsung is spreading out the Matter coverage across its own product line, with the Samsung Family Fridge line, , Samsung TVs, and Samsung monitors getting the upgrade in March and others to follow later this year.
The device itself is a wireless charger and supports three ‘routines’ with a simple press of the device.  The routines are set by the user and can operate a single function, such as turning on the lights, or a sequence of functions, such as turning on lights while opening curtains and turning on a smart speaker.  But here’s where it gets better…  Scenarios can be programmed into the device that are actuated by placing your phone on the charger, such as one might do before going to bed.  This can be set to trigger a routine that could close curtains, turn off lights, and turn down the heat, all of which would be reversed automatically when the phone is picked up from the charger the next morning, and we note that as long as the devices are Matter enabled, it does not matter which brand they are produced by, they would all operate under the Samsung device.
Not to be outdone by Apple, Samsung also includes the ability to find Matter devices within the home network range, so misplaced smartphones can be triggered to ring wherever they might be, and items equipped with smart tags, will contact the system and sends an e-mail or text to the user whenever they leave or enter the network area, so if a dog with a tagged collar gets out, the user will be immediately notified.  Of course this means that anyone trying to sneak out of the house or sneaking back in will generate the same notification if they have their smartphone with them, so errant spouses and sneaky teenagers beware…
All in, at least on the surface, Samsung has taken a set of simple but useful functions and put them in what is a relatively low-priced package that has at least some intrinsic value on its own (wireless charger).  Our only concern would be how difficult the device is to pair (attach to other devices) and program, which have been stumbling blocks for earlier smart devices, although Matter itself is said to make those functions a bit more intuitive.  More philosophically, Samsung, who abandon the smart home hardware business roughly three years ago, seems to have thought this re-entrance through, even stating that the company would rather embed its smart home technology in its products rather than creating branded hardware, a bit of a change for a company known for its CE hardware, although the SmartThings Station is just that, a branded product.  That said, with Matter leveling the playing field, consumers will have infinitely more choices about sensors, controllers, and applications, and the first Matter offering from Samsung seems to show that they are working toward making their smart home products practical rather than forcing consumers toward expensive proprietary hardware.


[1] Thread is a Wi-Fi mesh network protocol that extends and enhances IoT devices that can extend wireless networks of varying types including Wi-Fi, Ethernet, LTE, 5G an others, using low power and low latency connections between all devices, essentially a self-healing network. 

​More on Matter:
“Will it Matter?” – 07/21/22
“Apple Makes it Easy to Fix an iPhone, Mostly” – 09/20/22
“Will It Matter?” – 10/06/22
“More On Matter” – 10/13/22
“It’s a Complicated Matter” – 11/14/22
“What’s the Matter Now?” – 11/30/22
 

Samsung had some trouble pricing its inityial release of its quantum dot/OLED TV last year, originally listing the 55” and 65” models at $$2,400 and $3,500 respectively, prior to their April release, however the final pricing at release was lower for both, at $2,200 and $3,000, indicating the companywas still trying to best realize the most attractive price points, both from a profit perspective and from the consumer’s perspective.  As the QD/OLED concept was new for consumers it was up to Samsung to establish a point where these new sets could be placed in their TV line-up, but at the time Samsung Display (pvt), Samsung’s display affiliate, was having problems producing the  displays, with yields below 50%, and with Samsung Electronics targeting between 45m and 50m sets to be shipped for the year, such low yields meant that Samsung would have little reason to market sets that had such a small impact on the overall TV line.
Samsung Display, knowing without the support of its parent, having only Sony (SNE) as a 2nd customer for the TV panels, pushed its manufacturing lines to solve the yield problems, which began to see improvement around mid-year.  With yields improving, Samsung could justify the QD/OLED product line, and while it was still a small part of the entire Samsung TV line, the volumes were increasing at SDC and the potential for the QD/OLED line was finally acknowledged.
The problem however was that the combination of Samsung’s lack of marketing, weak overall TV set sales, and worsening TV panel pricing, left the QD/OLED sets in a netherworld, unrecognized by consumers, despite very favorable technical reviews.  Samsung seemed to recognize that they had a choice between a massive advertising campaign and setting a more attractive price point, and given the fact that even with the improving yields SDC had relatively limited display production capacity compared to other TV set modalities, the latter was chosen and the price of the sets was reduced.
While the price on Samsung’s website for both sets did change, the price on Amazon (AMZN), particularly those from 3rd party sellers, was much more telling and makes obvious the price point at which the sets became attractiuve to consumers, as shown in Figure 5.  While some of that volume can be attributed to improving yield at SDC, it seems that by October the price points (~$1,500 for the 55” sets & ~$1,890 for the 65” sets) had been reached and sales improved significantly,  We note also that during the earlier part of the year, Sony’s share was increasing and in September both Samsung and Sony had equal shipment share, but while Samsung continued to search for a more compatable price point, Sony did little to change the price of their QD/OLED sets, and share declined rapidly, hitting a low of 11.3% in November. 
We expect Sony’s purchase targets from SDC were set early in the year and the improvememnt in SDC’s yield did little to change that, with Samsung Electronics getting the bulk of the increasing shipments, but the chart makes it convincing that such a steep increase in QD/OLED shipments was directly influenced by the price, especially as it leveled off when the increases occurred.  3rd party pricing on Amazon does not always reflect list or discounted pricing om brand sites, but it seems a better indicator than Samsung’s own ‘brand’ pricing, which did decline from the initial $2,200 & $3,000 to $1,500 and $2,000 during the holidays last year (up slightly since), so even with the vaguries of 3rd party pricing on Amazon, it seems obvious that Samsung found the price point it needed for the QD/OLED sets to compete with other TV set brands.
The question remains however, wher=ther the relatively small number of QD/OLED displays that can be produced by SDC will be enough for parent Samsung to truly support the technology as a viable part of its TV product line.  Samsung has indicated that it will also be producing a 77” QD/OLED model this year, which is a size format that can be shared with 49”/50” displays cut from a single sheet, so we would expect to se additional QD/OLED panel sizes later this year, but most important would be the OK from both SDC and Samsung Electronics concerning the expansion of caapcity for the QD/OLED process, and that is a hard decision to be making during the weakest part of the yearly CE cycle.  Hopefully that decision has already been made and suppliers contacted if such capacity could be put on this year, but until SDC makes such a commitment, QD/OLED will remain a small part of Samsung’s TV set line.

​As the world’s largest smartphone brand, Samsung presents consumers with a large variety of smartphones at as many price points as possible, but while the aim is to capture every possible smartphone buyer, be it a potential $116 M04 series buyer or a $1,150 Z Fold series buyer, presenting such a wide variety of models and price points can become an expensive proposition from both a production cost perspective and a marketing perspective.  The chart below shows the number of models that Samsung has offered each year since 2016 compared to normalized (2016) global smartphone shipments and those of Samsung alone.  It can be seen that while global and Samsung’s own smartphone shipments declined between 2018 and 2022 (we assume a flat 4Q ’22), the number of models offered by Samsung increased until 2021 when offerings began to be reduced, now falling below the 2016 starting point and nearing the low point seen in 2017.
Given the prospects for a weak 1Q ’23 and relatively flat global smartphone shipments this year, we expect that Samsung will reduce the number of models it offers again this year, particularly for those lines where volumes have been decreasing.  We expect there will be a new foldable model released this year, likely a double folding smartphone, but we also expect the flagship ‘S’ line to be narrowed to two, rather than three models, as rumors that Samsung has abandon 2023 development of the Galaxy S+ line to concentrate on the better selling ‘regular S’ and the Galaxy S Ultra, which has replaced the former Galaxy Note line, also cannibalized by the Galaxy Fold series.  Samsung’s Mid-priced Galaxy A series and the lower priced Galaxy M series have some price overlaps, so we would expect to see at least two model eliminations in those series, after the A40 and M40 series were eliminated last year.
All in, Samsung needs to continue to focus on best selling models in each series to keep its own component inventory levels low, along with those of its OED/OEM partners, especially given the increases seen in component costs last year.  All things to all people is a great philosophy but it doesn’t take into account the inventory, marketing, and stocking costs associated with smaller volume models, and against a backdrop of relatively weak overall smartphone volume growth, the necessity to focus on higher margin and higher volume models becomes even more important.   We expect 2023 will see an overall continuing reduction in the number of smartphone models Samsung offers, with an emphasis on the top and bottom models in each smartphone price tier.

​Yesterday we highlighted much of Samsung’s (005930.KS) TV line and potential new models to be released for the 2023 year.  However actual sets and pricing are not released until mid to late 2Q, so we went back to check on TV set pricing for Samsung’s Mini-LED and quantum dot TV sets now that the holidays are over, and it seems that Samsung agrees that the holiday discount period has ended.  Not only have prices increased, but Samsung is no longer offering a number of its 2021 Mini-LED/QD sets to consumers.  Many of these sets are still available from retailers or 3rd party sellers on Amazon (AMZN), but the 2021 8K Mini-LED/QD sets (900A/800A) and the 2021 4K Mini-LED/QD sets are no longer offered, other than a single 55” 4K Mini-LED/QD model that saw a 40% increase in price over the last 43 days since our previous check.  Samsung is still offering all of the quantum dot only TVs from 2021, as shown in the table below.
Samsung’s lines from last year are all still available but saw price increases between 0% and 120% from our last check, which was the day before Thanksgiving (2 days ahead of Black Friday).  Two models in the 2021 line (of those that were still available) were equal to or at their lowest price, while only 3 were at their lowest price from the 2022 line, and we not that the 98” versions in all lines do not seem to be offered since last October.  This could be relatively country local but given that the US is a strong ultra-large market, it seems unlikely.  One a composite basis, the 2021 Samsung Mini-LED/QD and QD only lines saw a 4.6% increase in price since pre-Thanksgiving and are down 26.1% from their original price, although we only include those that are still available.  The 2022 line, which remains fully available, saw a 17.4% composite price increase since 11/23/22 and is currently down 23.1% from initial pricing.  Samsung’s QD/OLED TV line, which currently consists of 55” and 65” models, saw a price increase of 5.9% since 11/23/22 and is currently down 34.5% from its initial pricing.
As we would expect, almost all of the 2021 and 2022 Mini-LED/QD and QD only line reached lows around Black Friday 2022 as TV set brands sacrificed margin to move inventory which had been piling up as inflation worries dragged down consumer spending.  While the price bounce back since Black Friday looks severe in some instances, for example Samsung’s 55” 4K Mini-LED/QD 95B series set jumped froma low of $1,000 on Black Friday to its current price of $2,200, that same set was selling for $2,200 in August of last year and began a downward spiral in September 2022 that led to the $1,000 holiday price.  This was the extreme, although the upper tier 4K Mini-LED/QD models, especially the smaller sized TVs, saw the biggest holiday discounts and very oversized snap-back pricing currently.  Samsung seems a bit lees inclined to offer more sustained discounts, as we expect inventory levels are more in line with demand and seasonality, but while internal TV set targets have been set for 2023, public acknowledgement of those tyargets has been withheld so far this year.  We expect most brands will struggle to maintain positive y/y unit volumes in the TV space and will be a bit more rational about plans for 2023 after the 2H debacle last year.